NC State has defeated a top 10 team the last two years on their home field and now they get to do it again at home on ESPN with millions watching. How can they do it? Well they have one of the ACC's deepest defensive lines that should stay fresh this entire game and pay dividends in covering this spread. They are led by defensive end Art Norman who has been a handful for any defense. Clemson's last real game was on 8/31 same as NC State, but NC State has been preparing for this game all summer and I like what Dave Doereen has been saying this week. He's watched all of Clemson's games from last year and this year and I think he's smart enough to put together a plan that will allow them to compete. Doereen came over from Northern Illinois where he was 22-6 as the head coach and never lost a home game.
I also think we get some line value on this line with roughly 70% of the public betting on Clemson based on their Georgia win where they did allow 222 yards on their home field. I think NC State can find a lot of success running the ball with their deep group of running backs. Part of the high public play is due to the fact that NC State before the bye week nearly lost to Richmond, but it was clear they were not showing anything and that they were preparing for this game. They also had 4 turnovers inside the red zone that definitely did not show how they played. Matt Canada is a smart offensive coordinator that has an extra week and he'll mix tempo and no huddle to avoid Clemson subbing players. Canada was responsible for leading the Wisconsin offense last year after three QB changes so he knows a thing or two about game plans. NC State is also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home vs. a winning road team.
